Updated Forecast Continues To Call for Above-Average Hurricane Season

Palm Trees In Hurricane Through Window

June 14, 2021

Palm Trees In Hurricane Through Window

An updated forecast from the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University (CSU) continues to call for an above-average North Atlantic hurricane season this year.

The Colorado State researchers' updated June forecast continues to predict 18 named storms this season including 8 hurricanes, 4 of which are likely to become major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater. An average year over the 1991–2020 period would feature 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.

The report said the forecast is based on an extended-range early June statistical prediction scheme that was developed using 39 years of data.

"The early June forecast has moderate long-term skill when evaluated in hindcast mode," the report said. "The skill of CSU's forecast updates increases as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches."

Numerous other forecasters, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, have predicted an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year.

The 2020 hurricane season saw a record 30 named storms, of which 13 reached hurricane status, with 6 becoming major hurricanes. The previous record, set in 2005, was 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes.

June 14, 2021