More Researchers Predict an Active 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Beach with red warning flag, rough waves, debris, broken pier, and storm clouds

April 28, 2021

Beach with red warning flag, rough waves, debris, broken pier, and storm clouds

Another group of forecasters envisions an active 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, with researchers from North Carolina State University predicting 15 to 18 named storms.

The number of storms predicted exceeds the long-term hurricane season average of 11 from 1951 to 2020.

Of the 15 to 18 named storms predicted, 7 to 9 may grow to hurricanes, the North Carolina State University researchers said, versus the average number of 6. Two to three of the storms may become major hurricanes, the forecasters said.

The hurricane season will be active in the Gulf of Mexico, though closer to historical averages. Data used by Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth, and atmospheric sciences at NC State, indicate the likelihood of three to five named storms forming in the region, with two to four becoming hurricanes and one becoming a major hurricane. Historic averages for the Gulf of Mexico are three named storms and one hurricane.

The hurricane season evaluation involves more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables such as weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures.

April 28, 2021