Another group of forecasters has predicted an above-normal 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, with scientists at Colorado State University indicating they expect this year's activity to exceed the 1981–2010 average. The Colorado State forecast includes 17 named storms with 8 hurricanes, 4 of which will be major hurricanes.
Forecasters at AccuWeather are predicting another above-average North Atlantic hurricane season in 2021, though their forecast calls for a less active season than 2020's record season. AccuWeather's team predicts that this year's Atlantic hurricane season will see 16–20 named storms, of which 7–10 will be hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is upgrading its Global Forecast System weather model to boost weather forecasting capabilities across the United States. According to NOAA, the upgrades will improve hurricane genesis forecasting, modeling for snowfall location, heavy rainfall forecasts, and overall model performance.
Catastrophe risk modeling firm RMS will launch a suite of climate change models to help users assess the impacts of climate change on physical assets and their businesses. While most RMS models already incorporate the impact of climate change, the new models go further with forward-looking predictive insights and analysis.
The Danish Red Cross has issued a humanitarian catastrophe bond covering volcanic eruption through a Guernsey insurance-linked securities (ILS) structure. The catastrophe bond, which covers the risk of eruption of 10 volcanoes across 3 continents, raised $3 million from specialist catastrophe bond investors to support humanitarian aid following an eruption.
With an above-average number of natural disasters and a global pandemic, 2020 highlighted the need to invest in risk management planning for the possibility of coinciding extreme events, a new Aon report shows. Overall, 2020 was marked by 416 notable natural disaster events and $268 billion in economic losses.
US property-casualty insurers will likely face record first-quarter catastrophic losses as a result of extensive property damage from February's severe winter storms in southern states. The widespread scale of the event and the associated claims volume could drive losses ranging from $10 billion to $20 billion.