Howden Re's 2025 Preseason Hurricane Outlook Signals Active Atlantic Season

Howden Re has released its 2025 Preseason Hurricane Outlook, projecting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season with heightened storm activity driven by warm sea surface temperatures and key atmospheric conditions. The report outlines the confluence of climatological factors pointing toward a busy storm season, aligning with forecasts from major meteorological institutions. 

According to the report, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to feature 17 named storms, including 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). This projection corresponds to approximately 125 percent of the 1991–2020 average. Per Howden Re, the combination of a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phase is likely to sustain conditions favorable for hurricane development. 

Anna Pergerson, managing director and head of catastrophe research and development at Howden Re, said, "Our findings indicate a shift in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics that increasingly support greater storm intensity and longevity. While ENSO phases remain a valuable indicator of seasonal hurricane activity, our data shows that actual losses are more closely influenced by storm tracks, landfall locations, and the level of community preparedness. For example, for the last 3 years in a row, Florida has experienced a major hurricane starting with Ian in 2022, but impacts to the Florida market varied widely from storm to storm." 

According to Howden Re, unusually warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are providing excess heat and moisture, fueling stronger and more sustained storm systems. These thermodynamic conditions are further amplified by a neutral-to-La Niña–like ENSO setup expected to suppress vertical wind shear during the peak of the season. 

Justin Roth, associate director of catastrophe analytics research and development at Howden Re, said, "This year, a persistently positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), combined with a neutral-to-La Niña–like ENSO pattern, is expected to reduce vertical wind shear and promote storm development during the peak of the season. Although ENSO is currently neutral and forecasted to remain so, we still anticipate elevated, though somewhat moderated, hurricane activity." 

Per the report, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) artificial intelligence–enhanced seasonal model—known for its accuracy in 2023 and 2024—also supports the consensus for an active hurricane season, further reinforcing the outlook's credibility. 

Howden Re concluded that the overlap of favorable SSTs, suppressed wind shear, and other atmospheric factors, including a positive AMO, will likely sustain elevated hurricane formation potential throughout the 2025 season. The season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.