Munich Re Projects Slightly Above-Average Hurricane Activity for 2025

According to a May 30, 2025, update from Munich Re, weather and climate indicators point to a slightly more intense North Atlantic hurricane season this year, though the outlook is more uncertain than in 2024. The reinsurer notes that key climatological factors such as ocean temperatures and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions remain unclear, complicating predictions.

Per the update, leading research institutions forecast between 14 and 19 named storms in the tropical North Atlantic for the 2025 season. Of these, 7 to 9 are expected to become hurricanes, with 3 or 4 potentially developing into major hurricanes (those with wind speeds exceeding 110 mph). Munich Re stated that these projections are slightly above the long-term average from 1950 to 2024 and align with patterns observed during the current warm phase in the North Atlantic, which began in the mid-1990s.

Munich Re attributes the current outlook to a combination of warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and uncertain ENSO patterns in the equatorial Pacific. According to Anja Rädler, Munich Re meteorologist and climate expert, this year's forecast involves more ambiguity than last year's. "It's harder to make predictions for the hurricane season this year compared to last year," Ms. Rädler said in the update, pointing out that while some recent years with similar conditions were relatively quiet, others—such as 2017—saw devastating storms and billions in losses.

The update highlights that 2024 produced 18 tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic, including 11 hurricanes, 5 of which became major hurricanes. Munich Re emphasized that Hurricanes Milton and Helene were responsible for significant insured losses in Florida, making 2024 the second costliest year globally for tropical cyclone-related losses over the past decade.

According to Munich Re, the official hurricane season spans June 1 through November 30, though out-of-season storms are possible. The update warns that while forecasting landfall locations remains virtually impossible, even a single major hurricane striking a populated area can result in catastrophic financial impact. For this reason, the reinsurer continues to stress the importance of prevention and mitigation strategies.

The update also comments on tropical cyclone activity in the Northwest Pacific. Munich Re noted that ENSO conditions have an inverse effect in this region, where La Niña typically leads to below-average typhoon activity. Based on preliminary projections by Tropical Storm Risk, 2025 is expected to align with the 30-year average, with 25 named storms, 16 typhoons, and 9 severe typhoons in categories 3–5.

Munich Re's update also included a retrospective look at the most financially damaging hurricanes globally from 1980 to 2024. According to the reinsurer, Hurricane Katrina (2005) remains the most costly in terms of insured losses, followed by Hurricanes Ian (2022), Ida (2021), Sandy (2012), and Irma (2017).