NOAA Forecasters Predict Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season

Satellite view of hurricane from space

May 27, 2022

Satellite view of hurricane from space

Forecasters at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have joined others in predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year.

An above-average 2022 would be the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.

NOAA's forecast for the 2022 hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (storms with winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6–10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3–6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA said it was providing these ranges with a 70 percent degree of confidence.

NOAA said that the increased activity anticipated in this year's hurricane season is attributed to several climate factors, including the ongoing La Niña that is likely to persist throughout the hurricane season, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced West African monsoon.

May 27, 2022