Updated Forecast Projects Well-Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season

Palm Trees In Hurricane Through Window

June 09, 2020

Palm Trees In Hurricane Through Window

An updated forecast of 2020 Atlantic hurricane activity developed by researchers at Colorado State University predicts 19 named storms, including 9 hurricanes, 4 of them major hurricanes.

The Colorado State forecasters said they anticipate "well-above-average activity" this hurricane season. The latest report also said, "We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean."

The report noted that three tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—had already formed in the Atlantic as of June 2.

Based on data from 1981 to 2010, an average Atlantic hurricane season would produce 12.1 named storms, including 6.4 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes, according to the team of researchers in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State.

According to the updated forecast, the probabilities of one major Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane making landfall this year are 70 percent on the entire continental US coastline versus a 52 percent average probability over the last century; 46 percent on the US East Coast, including the Florida, peninsula versus a 31 percent average; and 45 percent on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas versus a 30 percent average.

The probability for a major hurricane tracking in the Caribbean this season is 59 percent, according to the updated forecast, versus a 42 percent average probability over the past century.

"As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them," a statement detailing the updated forecast said. "They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

June 09, 2020