Colorado State Researchers Lower 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

In the latest revision to their 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, researchers from Colorado State University (CSU) now anticipate a well-below-normal hurricane season.

"We are forecasting a well-below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," a statement from the CSU Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team said.

The latest CSU forecast calls for 9 named storms this season, well below the average of 14.4 from 1991 to 2020. The forecast predicts those storms will include 4 hurricanes compared with an average of 7.2, including 1 major hurricane (Category 3 or greater), compared with an annual average of 3.2.

The CSU team's previous forecast—released June 10—predicted 11 named storms, including 5 hurricanes, 2 of which would be major hurricanes. That report also was a reduction from the team's initial forecast for the year—issued in April—which called for 13 named storms, including 6 hurricanes, 2 of which would be major hurricanes.

"Moderate El Niño conditions are likely to intensify over the next few months, with a high potential for a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season," the CSU forecast said. "Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages. We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear."

The CSU forecast noted that the Atlantic basin has the largest year-to-year variability of any of the global tropical cyclone basins.