TDC Group Forecasts Key US Healthcare Trends Through 2026

TDC Group's report, Healthcare on the Horizon: Predictions for U.S. Healthcare Through 2026, examines the forces most likely to shape the US healthcare environment in the coming year, focusing on financial pressures, artificial intelligence (AI), liability exposure, and evolving care delivery models.  

The report highlights rapid change across regulatory, technological, and economic dimensions, emphasizing the uncertainty facing healthcare organizations and clinicians. 

AI integration will continue to expand across healthcare operations, from diagnosis and treatment planning to documentation and billing, but its effectiveness will depend on clinician trust, according to the report. While more than 1,000 health-related AI tools have received authorization from the Food and Drug Administration, and many physicians report using AI in practice, TDC Group said clinical judgment remains central, and organizations must conduct readiness assessments to avoid litigation and regulatory risks. 

Digital transformation represents a projected $1 trillion migration toward digital-first healthcare, shifting spending from traditional facilities to technology-enabled care, per the report. While AI-enabled workflows and telehealth have improved access and efficiency, TDC Group said integration challenges, reimbursement uncertainties, and legal liabilities have led to mixed outcomes, underscoring the importance of aligning innovation with medical and legal oversight. 

Liability volatility is expected to intensify, driven by social inflation and increasing nuclear verdicts—plaintiff awards exceeding $10 million—according to the report. TDC Group said the average of the top 50 medical malpractice verdicts rose significantly between 2022 and 2024, and AI-related evidence is now entering courtrooms, creating a "no-win" scenario in which physicians may face liability for both relying on and overriding algorithmic recommendations. 

Rising litigation costs, workforce shortages, and reimbursement challenges are contributing to hospital closures and widening access gaps, per TDC Group. The report notes a substantial increase in high-dollar malpractice verdicts over the past decade and indicates that rural hospitals, particularly those lacking labor and delivery services, are disproportionately affected, exacerbating care deserts nationwide. 

Medical liability reform is projected to become a national priority as courts grapple with evolving liability theories, according to the report. TDC Group said that more than 30 states have enacted liability reform measures, including caps on noneconomic damages and transparency requirements for third-party litigation funding, but these reforms remain under pressure, intensifying policy debates at both the state and federal levels. 

Reproductive healthcare remains an area of legal uncertainty following the reversal of Roe v. Wade, creating heightened liability exposure for clinicians, per the report. TDC Group said practitioners must navigate potential conflicts between federal emergency care requirements and state-level restrictions, while insurers are developing coverage solutions to address both civil and criminal risk exposures. 

Care delivery is shifting toward home-based models, including Hospital at Home (HaH) programs, according to the report. TDC Group said that hundreds of hospitals have received approval for HaH initiatives, supported by Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services waivers, and that advanced practice clinicians will play a critical role in team-based care as responsibility is shared across multidisciplinary settings. 

The emergence of agentic AI—systems capable of autonomous action—marks a significant development beyond traditional generative AI, per the report. TDC Group said that while agentic AI may enhance efficiency and patient safety, it introduces new accountability and governance challenges, requiring robust safeguards as legal frameworks evolve. 

Information complexity will continue to shape patient expectations, as social media, chatbots, and direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical advertising influence healthcare decisions, according to the report. TDC Group said regulatory enforcement has not kept pace with advertising growth, placing greater responsibility on clinicians to address misinformation and reinforce evidence-based practice through patient engagement. 

Despite technological transformation, distributed care models, and evolving business structures, physicians will remain the cornerstone of healthcare delivery, per TDC Group. The report concludes that while practice environments will undergo substantial digital and structural change, the medical degree will continue to serve as the gold standard of clinical expertise, anchoring trust in an increasingly complex healthcare system.