Gallagher Re: First-Half 2026 Natural Catastrophe Losses Below Long-Term Average

Gallagher Re has released its Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report: Preliminary Overview, reporting that global natural catastrophe losses during the first half of 2026 remained below long-term averages despite a high number of impactful events. According to Gallagher Re, economic losses totaled at least $142 billion, while insured losses reached at least $46 billion during the first 6 months of the year.  

Global economic losses of $142 billion were 10 percent below the 2016–2025 first-half average of $159 billion, while insured losses of $46 billion were 28 percent below the decadal average of $64 billion, according to the report. Gallagher Re attributed the below-average totals largely to the absence of multiple large insured catastrophe events, particularly outside the United States.  

The report noted that the insurance industry has now experienced 5 consecutive quarters without a natural catastrophe event generating more than $10 billion in insured losses. During the first half of 2026, there were 30 billion-dollar economic loss events and 11 billion-dollar insured loss events, both below their respective 10-year averages, per Gallagher Re.  

When weather- and climate-related events were examined separately, excluding earthquakes, volcanic activity, and other non-atmospheric perils, economic losses totaled at least $104 billion, while insured losses reached at least $44 billion. According to Gallagher Re, both figures were below their decadal averages, and the first half of 2026 became the first since 2020 without a single weather-related insured event exceeding $5 billion.  

The report identified the Venezuela earthquake sequence as the costliest economic loss event of the first half, with estimated economic losses of $37 billion and insured losses of approximately $1 billion. Other leading economic loss events included Storm Kristin in Europe, Storm Leonardo (Stephie), the Central US April severe convective storm outbreak, and the early June North American severe convective storm outbreak, according to the report.  

Gallagher Re said direct economic losses from natural catastrophes continued to demonstrate the volatility of so-called "non-peak" perils, particularly severe convective storms and flooding. The report noted that lower headline catastrophe losses do not necessarily indicate lower systemic risk, citing the humanitarian impacts of the Venezuela earthquake sequence as an example.  

Insured losses remained concentrated in the United States during the first half of the year. The report stated that all five of the costliest insured loss events were primarily driven by US occurrences, including severe convective storm outbreaks and a late January winter storm affecting both the United States and Canada. Gallagher Re also noted that the 11 billion-dollar insured loss events represented the fewest first-half total since 2017.  

According to Gallagher Re, below-average catastrophe losses have further strengthened insurer and reinsurer balance sheets, leaving the market well positioned to absorb future volatility. However, the report cautioned that meaningful risk remains during the second half of the year because of Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclone seasons, ongoing severe convective storm activity, and the potential for clusters of late-year catastrophe events.  

The report also examined the developing El Niño, which officially arrived in June. Gallagher Re said forecast models indicate the event could become one of the strongest on record, increasing the likelihood of reduced Atlantic hurricane activity while supporting more active conditions in parts of the Pacific. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also projects a high probability that 2026 will rank among the 5 warmest years on record.  

Gallagher Re emphasized that El Niño should not be viewed as eliminating hurricane risk. According to the report, while El Niño generally suppresses Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, significant variability remains within El Niño years, and warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures can still support damaging hurricanes. The report concluded that seasonal outlooks should account for both the probability of quieter conditions and the potential for high-impact outlier events.