Employer Health Benefit Costs Projected to Rise 8.2 Percent in 2027

Employer-sponsored health benefit costs are projected to increase by an average of 8.2 percent in 2027, the largest increase since 2003, according to preliminary findings from Marsh's 2026 National Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Plans, released August 31, 2026.

The projected increase reflects employers' planned cost-reduction measures. Without those changes, employers anticipate an average cost increase of 11 percent, according to the survey. The projected increase for 2026 was 6.7 percent.

Marsh identified several factors contributing to rising healthcare costs, including advances in medical treatments, provider consolidation, and increased utilization of GLP-1 medications for weight management. Its actuaries estimate that growing GLP-1 utilization alone accounts for approximately 1 percentage point of the projected 2027 increase.

The survey also identified two additional cost pressures: increased claims submissions associated with artificial intelligence-enabled medical billing software and higher-than-anticipated costs arising from the Independent Dispute Resolution process established under the No Surprises Act. Marsh estimates that each factor could contribute as much as 1 percentage point to overall cost growth.

In response, 59 percent of employers surveyed plan to make cost-cutting changes to their health benefits in 2027, potentially including higher deductibles and increased out-of-pocket expenses for employees.

Managing high-cost claims remains employers' leading health program priority, according to Marsh. The growing availability of expensive treatments for cancer and rare diseases has increased the frequency of exceptionally large claims, contributing to greater healthcare cost volatility.

Employers are also placing greater emphasis on directing employees toward higher-quality healthcare providers. Among large employers, 58 percent identified this strategy as important or very important for managing health programs over the next several years.

The preliminary findings are based on responses from more than 1,800 employers through August 10, 2026. The complete survey results are expected to be published in spring 2027.

Source: Marsh/Mercer, Survey: Health benefit costs expected to jump in 2027, August 31, 2026.