Aon Climate Report Shows Lower Losses, Persistent Risk Gaps

Aon's 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight report finds that global natural disaster losses in early 2026 remained below long-term averages, even as structural risks and coverage gaps persisted. The firm reported first-quarter economic losses of $37 billion, down 43 percent from the 21st-century average and the lowest first-quarter total since 2015, reflecting a quieter start to the year relative to historical trends.

Insured losses exceeded $20 billion in the first quarter, with the United States accounting for 79 percent of the global total, highlighting the concentration of insured exposure in mature markets, according to the report. The resulting global protection gap was estimated at 46 percent, underscoring the continued disparity between total economic losses and insured coverage.

The report places these early 2026 figures in the context of 2025, when global economic losses reached $260 billion, approximately 23 percent below the long-term average and the lowest annual total since 2015. Despite the lower overall losses, insured losses in 2025 totaled $127 billion, above the historical average, demonstrating how concentrated events can drive higher insured impacts even in less active years.

Severe convective storms and wildfires were the primary drivers of insured losses in 2025, with storm-related losses alone reaching $61 billion globally, the third-highest level on record, according to the report. The data reflects a broader trend of increasing losses from secondary perils, which continue to outpace traditional catastrophe risks, such as tropical cyclones.

Flooding and severe convective storms also led to first-quarter 2026 losses, including a major US outbreak from March 10 to 12 that generated approximately $5 billion in economic losses and $4 billion in insured losses, according to Aon. These events contributed significantly to quarterly totals and reinforced the growing financial impact of high-frequency weather events.

Regionally, the United States remained the dominant contributor to global insured losses, consistent with 2025 patterns when it accounted for 81 percent of insured catastrophe losses worldwide, per the report. Other regions, including Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, experienced comparatively lower insured losses, largely due to lower insurance penetration despite significant economic damage.

The report also highlights that global disaster fatalities reached at least 42,000 in 2025, driven primarily by earthquakes and heatwaves, illustrating the human toll alongside financial losses. While below long-term averages, the figures point to ongoing vulnerability to extreme events across multiple geographies.