"Global Risks Report" Identifies Misinformation as Key Short-Term Risk

According to a recent Marsh statement, the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2024 describes a global risks landscape in which progress in human development is being chipped away slowly, leaving states and individuals vulnerable to new and resurgent risks. Against a backdrop of systemic shifts in global power dynamics, climate, technology, and demographics, global risks are stretching the world's adaptative capacity to its limit.

The report infers that cooperation on urgent global issues could be in increasingly short supply, requiring new approaches to addressing risks, said Marsh. Furthermore, experts anticipate a multipolar or fragmented order to take shape over the next decade, in which middle and great powers contest and set—but also enforce—new rules and norms, according to Marsh.

The report draws on the views of over 1,400 global risks experts, policymakers, and industry leaders surveyed in September 2023.

Marsh said that experts surveyed for the report feel misinformation and disinformation are the biggest short-term risks, while extreme weather and critical changes to Earth's systems are the greatest long-term concern.

According to Saadia Zahidi, managing director, World Economic Forum, "An unstable global order characterized by polarizing narratives and insecurity, the worsening impacts of extreme weather and economic uncertainty are causing accelerating risks—including misinformation and disinformation—to propagate."

Rise of Disinformation and Conflict

Concerns over a persistent cost-of-living crisis linked with the risks of artificial-intelligence-driven misinformation and disinformation, as well as societal polarization, stood out in the report, according to the Marsh statement, and the nexus between falsified information and societal unrest will take center stage amid elections in several major economies that are set to take place in the next 2 years.

Moreover, interstate armed conflict ranked as a top five concern likely to have global effects over the next 2 years. With several live conflicts underway, underlying geopolitical tensions, and corroding societal resilience, there is a risk of spreading conflict, Marsh said.

Carolina Klint, chief commercial officer, Europe, Marsh McLennan, said, "Artificial intelligence breakthroughs will radically disrupt the risk outlook for organizations with many struggling to react to threats arising from misinformation, disintermediation and strategic miscalculation."

She continued, "At the same time, companies are having to negotiate supply chains made more complex by geopolitics and climate change and cyber threats from a growing number of malicious actors. It will take a relentless focus to build resilience at organizational, country and international levels—and greater cooperation between the public and private sectors—to navigate this rapidly evolving risk landscape."

Economic Uncertainty and Development in Decline

Per Marsh, the report found that the lack of economic opportunity was ranked by experts as the sixth risk likely to have a global impact in the next 2 years and that the coming years will be marked by persistent economic uncertainty and growing economic and technological divides. The Marsh statement also said that, in the longer term, barriers to economic mobility could build, locking out large segments of the population from economic opportunities. Conflict-prone or climate-vulnerable countries may increasingly be isolated from investment, technologies, and related job creation. In the absence of pathways to safe and secure livelihoods, individuals may be more prone to crime, militarization, or radicalization, Marsh said of the report's findings.

Planet in Peril

Environmental risks continue to dominate the risks landscape identified in the report, and global experts are worried about extreme weather events in 2024, Marsh said. Extreme weather, critical changes to Earth's systems, biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse, natural resource shortages, and pollution represent 5 of the top 10 most severe risks perceived to be faced over the next decade, per the report, said Marsh.

Marsh also explained that the report uncovered disagreement among the respondents on the urgency of the risks posed—private sector respondents believe that most environmental risks will materialize over a longer time frame, pointing to the growing risk of getting past a point of no return.